The Great Avocado Price Forecast in 2020: Should I Buy an Orchard Like Oprah?

Ever been hit with sticker shock when ordering guacamole at your favorite restaurant? You’re not alone. As an avocado enthusiast, I decided to dive deep into the data behind these rising prices and potentially uncover a business opportunity. Using time series and ARIMA models, I set out to forecast Hass avocado prices for 2019-2020, analyzing a comprehensive dataset of average prices and volumes across different U.S. regions.

(Want to explore the code? Check out the source code here)

The Current State of Avocados

My analysis began with a fascinating discovery in the monthly pricing patterns. Both conventional and organic avocados showed a dramatic price plunge from October to December:

Diving deeper into state-by-state comparisons, 2017 emerged as a particularly volatile year. The price variations were significant across all states for both conventional and organic varieties:

Time Series Analysis

The time series models revealed distinct patterns for both conventional and organic avocados:

Looking into the Future

By combining historical time series data with ARIMA models, I projected future trends:

The results paint an interesting picture:

• Conventional avocados show relative stability in both price and volume, likely due to their widespread consumption
• Organic avocados display more volatility in both metrics, though their volume maintains a more consistent lower boundary than conventional varieties

The Verdict

While Oprah may have jumped on the avocado orchard bandwagon, my analysis suggests waiting another year before making such an investment. The market still shows some uncertainty, particularly in the organic sector.

NOTE: I welcome any feedback or corrections! Please feel free to reach out via email.